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Forecasts show not enough classrooms, Hospital beds

by Peter Barda, Executive Director, Australian Construction Industry Forum

From birth to starting school to working to ageing, our community needs the built environment to support people through many stages of life.

Australian Construction Industry Forum’s (ACIF) recently-released Demand Driven Forecasts ask a number of vital questions with respect to this issue. What will our population look like to 2050? What will the community needs be in the years to 2020? Do we have the facilities they need or have we planned for it – if not, where is and how big is the gap?

The forecasts show serious shortfalls or oversupply are expected for key building construction assets – including classrooms, hospital beds, office, retail and industrial space plus housing – in communities around Australia. Demand Driven Forecasts 2014 predict population changes in 21 locales around Australia and determine the future needs of these communities compared to the current and planned supply of each asset type.

Some regions will have been struggling to meet the needs of the community, yet other regions will see an oversupply of assets as the projected population will have a reduced need for some building types.

“Effective urban planning will only happen with sound information on asset supply and demand,” said ACIF executive director Peter Barda.

“Peering into the looking glass of the population we expect in 21 regions, we can see how their needs are set to change. Authorities have the chance now to plan for construction or re-use of community and other assets.”

The forecasts use source data from government reports plus major project information from Cordell Information. Expert forecasters ACIL Allen Consulting analyse the data to produce the Demand Driven Forecasts for ACIF.

Demand Driven Forecasts are part of the ACIF Forecasts, a suite of industry predictions that provide the custom builders and construction industry and its clients with a ‘compass’ to the future, so they plan to survive and thrive under changing market conditions.ACIF Forecasts include a 10-year outlook for work demand, labour requirements, major projects and the costs of building and construction which professional industrial builders will have to consider.

For Victoria, the contrast between the capital city and regions will be keenly felt. Melbourne is set for a significant increase in the number of people aged 15 to 64, with stress on classrooms and hospital beds a likely result. Due to the past years of burgeoning home building, however, there will be an excess supply of housing.

Ballarat, by contrast, will have demand for attached dwellings and houses, an early oversupply of classrooms and almost balanced demand for offices and industrial space.

Geelong will experience almost no demand for work; all but two work types are expected to experience oversupply, and when there is demand it will be low-range.

“These Forecasts rely upon the published building and construction plans of governments,” Barda said. “In some cases, the Demand Driven Forecasts highlight where plans have not been released – or possibly made – and the potential gaps if action isn’t taken.”

The Demand Drive Forecasts include charts for population projections to 2050 and the forecasts supply and demand for seven asset types to 2020. Matching the projected demand and supply for each asset is a ‘traffic light’ chart, highlighting the gaps.

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